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Two frogs are minding their own business in the swamp when WHAM -- they're kidnapped.
两只青蛙在沼泽地里正各忙各的，这时“砰”地一声--它俩被绑架了。
They come to in a kitchen, captives of a menacing chef. He boils up a pot of water and lobs one of the frogs in. But it's having none of this.
它们被恶厨师捕获后来到了厨房。他煮了一锅水，把一只青蛙丢进锅里。但它从没经历过这些。
The second its toes hit the scalding water it jumps right out the window.
它脚趾碰到滚烫水的那一刻，它直接跳出了窗外。
The chef refills the pot, but this time he doesn't turn on the heat. He plops the second frog in, and this frog's okay with that.
厨师又把锅装满水，但这次他没有开火。他把第二只青蛙丢进锅里，这只青蛙没啥反应。
The chef turns the heat on, very low, and the temperature of water slowly rises. So slowly that the frog doesn't notice.
厨师打开小火，水温慢慢升高，慢到青蛙都没注意到。
In fact, it basks in the balmy water. Only when the surface begins to bubble does the frog realize: it's toast.
其实，它沐浴在温暖的水中。只有当水面开始冒泡时，青蛙才意识到：它已熟了。
What's funny about this parable is that it's not scientifically true... for frogs.
这个寓言的有趣之处在于，科学角度看关于青蛙的说法不正确。
In reality, a frog will detect slowly heating water and leap to safety.
其实青蛙能察觉慢慢加热的水，然后跳到安全的地方。
Humans, on the other hand, are a different story.
但另一方面，人类的情况就不同了。
We're perfectly happy to sit in the pot and slowly turn up the heat, all the while insisting it isn't our hand on the dial,
我们很享受坐在锅里，慢慢地把火调大，始终坚持说不是我们的手在控温、
arguing about whether we can trust thermometers, and questioning -- even if they're right, does it matter?
争论温度计是否可信并质疑，就算温度计正确，有关系吗？
It does. Since 1850, global average temperatures have risen by 1 degree Celsius.
确实有关系。自1850年以来，全球平均气温上升了1℃。
That may not sound like a lot, but it is. Why?
听起来上升不多，但其实很多，为什么？
1 degree is an average. Many places have already gotten much warmer than that.
因为1℃是平均值，许多地方的气温已经比这高得多。
Some places in the Arctic have already warmed 4 degrees.
北极一些地方已经升温4℃。
If global average temperatures increase 1 more degree, the coldest nights in the Arctic might get 10 degrees warmer.
如果全球平均气温再升1℃，北极最冷寒夜可能温度会上升10℃。
The warmest days in Mumbai might get 5 degrees hotter. So how did we get here?
孟买最热的时候可能还要热5℃。那么我们是怎么走到这一步的呢？
Almost everything that makes modern life possible relies on fossil fuels: coal, oil, and gas full of carbon from ancient organic matter.
几乎所有使现代生活成为可能的东西都依赖于化石燃料：煤、石油和天然气都充满来自远古有机物的碳。
When we burn fossil fuels, we release carbon dioxide that builds up in our atmosphere,
当我们燃烧化石燃料时，释放出二氧化碳，它在大气层中累积，
where it remains for hundreds or even thousands of years, letting heat in, but not out.
并停留数百年、甚至数千年。让热量进入，而不会排出热量。
The heat comes from sunlight, which passes through the atmosphere to Earth, where it gets absorbed and warms everything up.
来自阳光的热量穿过大气层到达地球，热量被吸收，使一切变暖。
Warm objects emit infrared radiation, which should pass back out into space, because most atmospheric gases don't absorb it.
温度较高的物体会发出红外辐射，这种辐射本该返回太空，因为多数大气气体不会吸收它。
But greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide and methane -- do absorb infrared wavelengths.
但温室气体--二氧化碳和甲烷--确实会吸收红外线波长。
So when we add more of those gases to the atmosphere, less heat makes it back out to space, and our planet warms up.
所以，当我们向大气中释放更多这种气体时，返回太空的热量减少，地球就会变暖。
If we keep emitting greenhouse gases at our current pace, scientists predict temperatures will rise 4 degrees from their pre-industrial levels by 2100.
如果继续以目前速度排放温室气体，科学家预测，到2100年，与工业化前的水平相比，全球气温将上升4℃。
They've identified 1.5 degrees of warming -- global averages half a degree warmer than today's
他们已确定，气温上升1.5℃就到临界值，即全球平均气温比现在高0.5℃，
as a threshold beyond which the negative impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe.
一旦超过这个临界值，气候变化的负面影响将变得更严重。
To keep from crossing that threshold, we need to get our greenhouse gas emissions down to zero as fast as possible.
为了避免超过这个门限值，我们需要尽快将温室气体排放降至零。
Or rather, we have to get emissions down to what's called net zero,
或者确切地说，我们必须将排放量降至所说的净零，
meaning we may still be putting some greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but we take out as much as we put in.
即我们仍可在向大气中排放一些温室气体，但我们吸收和排放一样多。
This doesn't mean we can just keep emitting and sequester all that carbon
这并不意味着可以继续排放和封存所有的碳，
we couldn't keep up with our emissions through natural methods, and technological solutions would be prohibitively expensive and require huge amounts of permanent storage.
我们无法通过自然封存方法跟上我们的碳排放，而且技术解决方案会非常昂贵，还需要大量的永久储存。
Instead, while we switch from coal, oil, and natural gas to clean energy and fuels, which will take time, we can mitigate the damage by removing carbon from the atmosphere.
相反，当我们从煤炭、石油和天然气转向清洁能源和燃料时，这需要时间，可以通过大气去碳来减轻损害。
Jumping out of the proverbial pot isn't an option, but we can do something the frogs can't: reach over, and turn down the heat.
跳出热锅不是我们的选择，但我们可以做一些青蛙做不到的事：伸出手来，把火关小。
