评论
打印
Finance & economics
财经板块
Buttonwood: Recurring nightmares
梧桐树：噩梦重现
How should investors prepare for repeat inflation shocks?
投资者应该如何应对反复出现的通胀冲击?
Buy stocks so you can dream, buy bonds so you can sleep—or so the saying goes.
俗话说，买股票是为了做梦，买债券是为了睡觉。
A wise investor will aim to maximise their returns relative to risk, defined as volatility in the rate of return, and therefore hold some investments that will do well in good times and some in bad.
明智的投资者会致力于最大化其相对于风险的回报(即回报率的波动性)，因此他们持有的投资既有在景气时期表现良好的，也有在不景气时期也会表现良好的。
Stocks surge when the economy soars; bonds climb during a crisis.
经济腾飞时，股市会暴涨；而在危机期间，债券会攀升。
A mix of the two—often 60% stocks and 40% bonds—should help investors earn a nice return, without too much risk.
这两者的组合--比例通常是60%的股票和40%的债券--应该会帮助投资者在没有太大风险的情况下获得不错的回报。
Such a mix has been a sensible strategy for much of the past two decades.
在过去20年的大部分时间里，这样的组合一直是一种明智的策略。
Since 2000 the average correlation between American stocks and Treasuries has been staunchly negative, at -0.5.
自2000年以来，美国股票和国债之间一直是负相关，平均值为-0.5。
But the recent rout in both stock and bond prices has wrong-footed investors.
但最近股票和债券价格的暴跌让投资者措手不及。
In the first half of the year the S&P 500 shed 20.6% and an aggregate measure of the price of Treasuries lost 8.6%.
今年上半年，标准普尔500指数下跌了20.6%，衡量美国国债价格的一个综合指标下跌了8.6%。
Is this an aberration or the new normal?
这是一种反常现象还是新常态？
The answer depends on whether higher inflation is here to stay.
答案取决于较高的通胀是否会持续下去。
When economic growth drives asset prices, stocks and bonds diverge.
当推动资产价格的是经济增长时，股票和债券就会出现分化。
When inflation drives them, stocks and bonds often move in tandem.
而当推动它们的是通胀时，股票和债券往往会同步变动。
On August 10th American inflation data showed prices did not rise in July.
8月10日，美国通胀数据显示，7月份物价并未上涨。
Stocks soared—the S&P 500 rose by 2.1%—and short-term Treasury prices climbed, too.
股市暴涨了--标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%--短期国债价格也有所攀升。
For as long as central bankers kept a lid on inflation, investors were protected.
只要央行官员控制住了通胀，投资者就能受到保护。
Yet look back before 2000, to a period when inflation was more common, and you see that stocks and bonds frequently moved in the same direction.
然而，回顾2000年前通胀发生频率更高的时期，你会发现股票和债券的走势经常是一致的。
AQR Capital Management, an investment firm, notes that in the 20th century the correlation between stocks and bonds was more often positive than negative.
投资公司AQR资本管理公司指出，在20世纪，股票和债券之间往往为正相关。
Lots of hedge-fund types, pension-fund managers and private-equity barons are therefore worrying about the potential for repeat inflation shocks.
因此，许多对冲基金公司、养老基金经理和私募股权大亨都在担心可能会反复发生通胀冲击。
Last year the debate in the halls of finance was about whether inflation would be “transitory” or “persistent”; this year it is about whether it is “cyclical” or “structural”.
去年，金融大厅里的人都在辩论通胀是“暂时性的”还是“持续性的”；今年则在辩论它是“周期性的”还是“结构性的”。
At the heart of this is not whether central bankers can bring down prices, but whether the underlying inflation dynamic has changed.
问题的核心不是央行官员能否压低价格，而是潜在的通胀动态是否发生了变化。
Those in the “structural” camp argue that the recent period of low inflation was an accident of history—helped by relatively calm energy markets, globalisation and Chinese demographics, which pushed down goods prices by lowering the cost of labour.
“结构性”阵营的人辩称，近期的低通胀是历史的意外--这得益于较为平静的能源市场、全球化和中国的人口结构，后者通过降低劳动力成本压低了商品价格。
