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Dry weather, increasing fertilizer costs, and concerns over export rules are pushing farmers in Argentina to plant less wheat.
干燥的天气、不断增加的化肥成本以及对出口规则的担忧促使阿根廷农民减少小麦种植面积。
They might plant more soybeans instead.
他们可能会种植更多的大豆。
That is causing worries in world markets because the South American nation is the world's number six exporter of wheat.
这引起了世界市场的担忧，因为这个南美国家是世界第六大小麦出口国。
Argentina's production is even more important because of the worldwide wheat shortage.
由于全球小麦短缺，阿根廷的小麦生产变得更加重要。
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has greatly increased wheat prices.
由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，小麦价格大幅上涨。
The two countries are among the world's top wheat producers.
这两个国家是世界上最大的小麦生产国。
Juan Francisco Arregui is an Argentinian farmer.
胡安·弗朗西斯科·阿雷奎是一名阿根廷农民。
He told Reuters, "The season for wheat is complicated."
他告诉路透社，“小麦的生长季节很复杂。”
His fields have not received rainfall in two months.
他的田地已经两个月没有降雨了。
He said the crop needs rain to arrive soon, but weather predictions are not promising.
他说，作物需要雨水尽快降下，但天气预报并不乐观。
While there was enough water to plant the seeds, "there is not much left," he said.
他说，虽然有足够的水用来播种，但“剩下的水不多了”。
He added, "It means that the wheat crop is not sure by any means. We can get it started, but then we are waiting for rain."
他还说，“这意味着无论如何都无法确定小麦的收成。我们可以开始播种，但之后我们就等待降雨了。”
Argentina had a record wheat harvest of 22.4 million metric tons in the season that ended.
在结束的那个季节，阿根廷的小麦收成达到创纪录的2240万吨。
Suppliers were hoping the country could replace the grain lost because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
供应商原本希望该国能够弥补因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而损失的粮食。
But now, both of Argentina's main grains exchanges, Buenos Aires and Rosario, have cut wheat planting predictions.
但现在，阿根廷的两个主要谷物交易所，布宜诺斯艾利斯和罗萨里奥，都下调了小麦种植面积预期。
And they are warning of more cuts if the weather does not improve.
他们警告称，如果天气不好转，还会有更多的减产。
Cristian Russo is the head agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange.
克里斯蒂安·鲁索是罗萨里奥谷物交易所的首席农学家。
Its highest estimate of the next harvest is 18.5 million metric tons.
它估计下一季小麦收成的最高产量是1850万吨。
Russo said, "Today anything that goes wrong with wheat is more important and means greater losses."
鲁索说，“如今，小麦出现的任何问题都更重要，这意味着更大的损失。”
The exchange has warned about the worst wheat planting conditions in 12 years.
该交易所警告称，这是12年来最糟糕的小麦种植环境。
It says planting of the grain is at 65 percent because of the dry conditions.
它表示，由于干旱的环境，这种谷物的种植率为65%。
Many fields could be left unplanted.
许多田地可能会被闲置。
The Russia-Ukraine fighting has also greatly increased fertilizer prices.
俄乌战争也大大提高了化肥价格。
Russia is a major supplier.
俄罗斯是主要供应国。
The loss of Russian fertilizer has hit farmers from the United States to South America.
失去俄罗斯化肥打击了美国和南美等地的农民。
Arregui said this season he paid $1,600 per metric ton for phosphate fertilizer.
阿雷奎说，本季每吨磷肥他花了1600美元。
That is more than double the $700 he paid a year ago.
这是他一年前所支付的700美元的两倍多。
Another fertilizer, called urea, doubled to $1,100 per metric ton.
另一种名为尿素的肥料价格翻了一番，达到每吨1100美元。
That pushed him away from planting wheat to planting soy, which requires a lower investment.
这促使他放弃种植小麦，转而种植需要较低投资的大豆。
Concerns over government intervention also weigh on farmers' minds.
对政府干预的担忧也令农民忧心忡忡。
Officials in Argentina are trying to control national inflation which is at about 60 percent.
阿根廷官员正试图控制全国通胀率，目前该国的通胀率约为60%。
The government has kept a lower cap on wheat exports than last year.
政府设定了比去年更低的小麦出口量上限。
It has raised export taxes on the products soymeal and oil, and has threatened higher taxes for wheat.
它提高了豆粕和食用油的出口税，并可能要提高小麦的出口税。
But Reuters news service reports that there is not enough support in congress for that step.
但路透社报道称，这一举措在国会没有得到足够的支持。
Wheat exports for the 2022 to 2023 growing cycle are currently capped at 10 million metric tons, from 14.5 million metric tons a year earlier.
2022年至2023年生长周期的小麦出口量目前上限为1000万吨，而一年前为1450万吨。
That limit could be raised later however.
然而，这一上限可能会在以后提高。
Arregui said, "Here you go to bed on a Sunday and on a Monday you don't know what news you're going to find."
阿雷奎说：“在这里，你周日上床睡觉，而周一你不知道你会发现什么消息。”
He was commenting on the changes in government policy.
他是在评论政府政策的变化。
He added, "Every day they are making decisions that indirectly affect what you do and it's a terrible uncertainty, you can't plan anything. It really costs you a lot every day."
他还说，“他们每天都在做出间接影响你所做事情的决定，这是一个可怕的不确定性，你不能计划任何事情。这每天都会让你付出很大代价。”
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·施塔赫尔为您播报。
译文为可可英语翻译，未经授权请勿转载！
